Let’s say you always assumed you’d be rich someday, even though you hate working. Psychologists call this condition “America.” Obviously you need a million dollars, so women can finally see the real you, and obviously you enjoy mixed martial arts. So why not combine the two and make a million dollars by betting on UFC Fight Night 27?
It seems like a daunting task at first. The betting lines for tonight’s card are particularly close, in part because of the relative obscurity of the fighters involved. If getting rich were about making small amounts of money from a series of good decisions, this article would be about how to operate a car wash. You want to become a millionaire tonight, while you watch TV, so you need a genius upset pick.
The widest line on tonight’s card is between Brad Tavares (-450) and Robert “Bubba” McDaniel (+400.) Any lifelong gambler will tell you that’s the best bet, because you only need to put down
$250,000 on McDaniel to win a million. You could be eating caviar off a Thai child’s face by tomorrow morning, but there are some drawbacks.
First, you have to stake the price of a four-bedroom house on the future of a man named “Bubba.” That’s usually a good investment—see Bubba Gump and international gum magnate Reginald “Bubba” Licious—but it’s possible Tavares might shock you. Usually, professional oddsmakers are wrong and guys who watch all the fights that appear on basic cable are right, but you want to be sure.
The problem is complicated by a relative absence of information about either fighter. Tavares is 10-1 against a bunch of guys you don’t know plus Phil Baroni (win) and Aaron Simpson (loss.) His most recent video footage available is an interview in which he wishes he were fighting someone better known.
McDaniel has a more extensive 21-6 record, but it reads like the guest list at an Oklahoma Comfort Inn. The relative obscurity of his opponents should work to your advantage here, because it means that the gap between what oddsmakers know and what you know is narrower.
How much narrower? Probably a damn sight less than -450 to +400. For that reason, betting on McDaniel to beat Tavares is the smart money play. If you have the means, I highly recommend putting a quarter million on Bubba. You can drive by in your solid gold rocket train tomorrow to thank me. My fee is 10% of all winnings—just winnings. I cannot stress that enough.
Dan Brooks writes about politics, culture and lying at Combat! blog.