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Jackal Gambling: UFC 123 (the prelims)

It’s the illustrious return of Jackal Gambling, ladies and germs.  Being on probation has reacquainted me with the familiar calculation, breath holding and massive flushing of my kidneys (wait, what?) that accompanied my halcyon poker days.  If you’re like me and your cash flow only goes one way, it’s tough to justify wagering money on damn near anything – but if you’re one of the blessed Jackals with a source of income that doesn’t involve college debt, then may we humbly beseech (read: beg) you to sign up, via this link or this one or even this one, with BetUS.  Friendly interface, accessible customer service and no deposit required.  The only reason not to is because you hate my face, but it’s Ryan’s face that is invariably hated by that hatred.  So click.

On to the card!

Humanity’s capacity to overcome (+500) v Detroit (-450) – Not worth betting.  Detroit in a walk.

Nik Lentz (+165) v Tyson Griffin (-230) – Tyson has fallen on some rough times lately.  After being surprisingly dominated by Evan Dunham, he followed up being KTFO by Takanori Gomi with what is probably the single funniest protest of a stoppage that I’ve ever seen.  Despite being on a two fight losing streak, we’re talking about a guy with losses to Gomi, Dunham, Sherk and Edgar at LW.  Not too shabby – plus, while I will defend Nik’s right to hump his way to whatever victory he can, a) it’s not going to work here and b) his last fight was a turd.  Griffin could make a nice parlay addition.

TJ O’Brien (+135) v Paul Kelly (-165) – Gotta come clean here: not as boned up on this season of TUF as I could be.  When in doubt, use the Wiki; in prelim fights, if one fighter has a Wikipedia page and the other does not, the “known” fighter probably wins 85% of those scraps (kudos to Mike Fagan at BE for this formulation).  Wikiing (is that a word?) O’Brien takes you directly to the TUF page.  Kelly has his own page.  Advantage Kelly, and at pretty decent odds to boot.

Mike Lullo (+375) v Edson Barboza (-550) – Barboza (real name Edson Mendes Jr., but with a nickname like “the Nova Friburgo Phenomenon”, who really gives a shit?) is coming in undefeated and super hyped, with only one fight making it into the second round.  Mike Lullo doesn’t have a Wikipedia page and is a late replacement for Darren Elkins.  Haven’t seen either one, ever, so can’t recommend a play here.

Dennis Hallman (+135) v Karo Parysian (-165) – Ultimately, I can’t understand how Karo is a favorite here.  Sure, the Heat has shown both great promise and the ability to clearly job fighters out of decisions (thank Christ Stun Gun got that abomination taken off of his record), but we’re talking about a guy that almost wilted under the bright lights of Impact FC, going as far as insisting his fight be moved up the card so he could kill the butterflies sooner.  There are people in this world that I am rooting for and would not bet on.  Karo’s one of them.

Tomorrow (or later today) – the Spike prelims and the main card.

  • frickshun


  • McBayne

    “Griffin could make a nice parlay addition”
    No, parlays are dead money, you’re just multiplying the vig.

    I have a lot on Griffin though. The best bet on the undercard IMO. Lentz will need favorable judging to win this one, he’s outclassed.

  • Reverend Clint

    ive got hallman taking this. Judo Nutjob is a loser face

  • Jim

    I got a 100 bucks on
    Hallman, Dennis
    Simpson, Aaron
    Machida, Lyoto
    Penn, B.J.
    Griffin, Tyson
    Martinez, Sergio Gabriel (boxing)

    returns 3K :)

  • frickshun

    Jimbo–>next time you want to throw $100 in the garbage……give it to me!! I’ll get Subbo to suck you off for $50 & I keep the other $50 as a “finders fee”.

  • subo


  • agentsmith

    ^^ Sounds about right. According to the ads in the back of local newspapers, $60 is apparently the going rate for “erotic massage with oral”.

  • scissors61

    Only bet that really stands out is Hallman.

  • Mr. Clark

    Guys, bear with me here I’m retarded when it comes to placing bets and the terminology.

    You said a good bet would be Machida winning by decision. I called up BetUS and they didn’t know what I was talking about.

    What did I do wrong?

    Help out a first time gambler. Thanks

  • 2wrongs

    Dear Mr. Clark,

    I would caution you against making wagers or even learning about it in the same way that I would caution a person from taking up smoking or heroin. Except for some momentary enjoyment there is no good that can come from doing this in the long run. Consider this a warning.

    But given that you are probably above the age of consent and of free will I will help you out.

    There are numerous different types of bets on events. The type that you are proposing is called a “proposition bet”. This type of bet is very specific, for example betting on the time of of the second goal in a football (soccer) game.

    Betting is like the stockmarket in some ways. If there is a market for such a bet then you can place it. As MMA is not that common in the betting world ( there is not a lot of liquidity ) so the only types of bets currently are “line bets” which means you are betting on a win or lose basis, not HOW they win or lose. Hence you will hear people say “what is the line on the Rampage, Machida fight”.

    You confused him and he didn’t take your bet. He thought that you wanted something that he wasn’t providing, namely the odds on a specific outcome such as “cut stoppage”, “tko strikes”, “ko” , submission, decision, alien invasion, etc.

    SO if you are still interested in it betting all you have to say is “100 dollars on Machida to win” and the person will gladly take your bet. You can tell your friends about how you think Machida will win but the bookie won’t care.

  • frickshun

    2WongFu–>That may be true for BetUs (I don’t know) but it’s not hard to find bookies that offer prop bets for MMA.

    With that said, I personally get zero enjoyment from betting fights.

  • 2wrongs

    Dear Mr. Frickshun,

    I must assent to your superior knowledge in this area. I guess I never looked too hard to find bookies online who would take action on prop bets for MMA and assumed that there wasn’t much action (liquidity).

    Honestly, given some of the lines on the fights I assumed that they didn’t know the sport well enough to accurately gauge risk on prop bets but I guess that was foolish of me as I should have assumed that a real bookie will make book on anything.

    So Mr. Clark, please contact Mr. Frickshun for a bookie who will take your action if you wish to still make that specific bet.

    I merely hope that you have a better understanding of what you are getting into now.

  • subo

    I am a fan of 2wrongs right about now. Only a matter of time before the gay/dick jokes bring him down to our level.

    I love prop bets. If a football game is gay, start betting on how long punts/punt returns will go.

  • 2wrongs


    Have no fear, I enjoy gay/dick jokes as much as the next person.

    However, there is a tick that I suffer from. When I type, I find it impossible to be informal. So I ask your forbearance on this.

    Carry on as if normal.

    Warmest Regards,


  • frickshun

    Two happy detectives walk into a bar…….

  • iamphoenix

    i am smitten by 2wrongs…