Alright, you bastards. Part of 2011 is going to be making these a thing. We’ve yet to sucker… I mean, convince… any of you to sign up for BetUS by clicking one of these. It’s either that or the boss is holding out on me, and that’s not really a road I want to go down. I’m sure that lifesize Jake replacement doll cost a lot of money. Real human hair isn’t cheap, you know. But again, a plea: it’s fucking free. It doesn’t take much time at all and the people you talk to are very understanding about poverty – hell, I haven’t had any money in the account yet, and I don’t get harassed about it. To the arrogant, put your money where your mouth is and buy drinks with your winnings. To the meek, start studying and help us out.To the lazy, FUCKING CLICK HERE. It literally helps us more than you buying a star.
On to the card (we’ll do the main card and mention a couple of the more interesting prelims – it’s kind of awesome how deep even the free cards are now post-merger. OH. And BetUS has an awesome thing now that shows you the “action” – the percentage of money being wagered on the most-bet fighter. Very, very helpful for predicting lines moving and seeing where the money’s going.
Joey Beltran (+180) v Pat Barry (-230) [Barry receiving 75% of wagers] – The heavyweight picture on this card is kind of incestuous. Pat Barry and Beltran both fought Tim Hague (Beltran beating him by decision and Barry losing via choke), who is fighting Matt Mitrione later on the card, who has a victory over Joey Beltran. I think it’s safe to say that the injury to Velasquez, combined with Carwin’s lay off and Roy’s contract issues, saved some jobs in this division. Beltran is tougher than shit, but Barry’s better than he is at his bread-and-butter and the chances of Barry using Friendship (Friendship?) like he did against Cro Cop are minimal. If you think it’s a slam dunk, bet now – that line’s not getting and closer.
Matt Wiman (+150) v Cole Miller (-180) [Miller receiving 65% of wagers] – Matt “Handsome” Wiman, clearly given his nickname on Opposite Day, is riding a two fight streak that looks a little more impressive after what Mac Danzig did his last time out. Cole Miller has also won two straight and four of five, and is in my opinion the more promising fighter (both are 26 years old). If you ever played Undisputed, you know that Miller is actually pretty damn decent, and I can’t think of a better tool to use when making fiscal decisions. Plus, he knows that the Cerrone fight is on the horizon if he wins.
George Roop (+200) v Mark Hominick (-260) [Hominick receiving 59% of bets] – Personally, I’m a fan of this fight minus the title implications. I hate it when a fight is arranged so that one fighter gets a title shot if he wins and the other doesn’t if he wins (see my criticism of Rampage/Jardine for that very reason). That’s not a #1 contender’s fight. It may well be the best option to find Aldo some food now that Grispi shit the bed, but I don’t have to like it. If Roop pulls this off, disregard everything I’ve written here.
Tim Hague (+200) v Matt Mitrione (-260) [Mitrione receiving 55% of bets] – Some of you might be wondering “who is Tim Hague?” Well, remember the hype train that was Todd Duffee after he recorded the fastest official (Bang still wins for what he did to Goulet unofficially) KO stoppage in UFC history? Hague was the coal in that train, immolated by a jab in only seven seconds. If you look up “raw” in the dictionary, you’ll see Matt Mitrione’s picture – however, I think he’s a better athlete and a better striker than Hague. Sorry, Canucks – I’m with the majority on this one.
Melvin Guillard (+200) v Evan Dunham (-260) [Dunham receiving 64% of bets] – According to the identical lines and disproportionate action, the bettors think Dunham beating Guillard is more of a sure thing than Hominick beating Roop. I don’t buy it. I’ve been infinitely impressed by Guillard lately, who is insanely experienced for being 27. He’s with the best camp in the game, he would be 7-0 in his last seven fights had he not had a massive brain fart against Nate Diaz (remember Diaz getting dropped in the first ten seconds? I do, when I need a smile), and has shown marked improvement in the areas that have always gotten him in trouble. Evan Dunham is a helluva fighter, but right now, his most impressive win is a split decision (should’ve been unanimous) against Tyson Griffin. I’d take a floater on Guillard had I gotten off my ass to write this post earlier. Next time, bitches.
Prelims: People are flat out abandoning Demarques Johnson against Mike Guymon (97% on Guymon at +115), Willamy Freire against Waylon Lowe (95% on Lowe at -105) and Rani Yahya against Mike Brown (90% on Brown at, I shit you not, -350). Johnson has surprised me before, so forget that – Lowe is probably a no-brainer at that line.