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UFC 107 Degenerate Gambling Odds

So, your landlord told you that your shit was going to be tossed out onto the curb if you couldn’t come up with the rent by Monday. As is usually the case with your underachieving self, you only have maybe half of what you need.

You can’t ask your friends for any more cash as you still owe each of them for that “GynoCup: The Man Tits Bra” idea you had a few months back. You’re still pretty confident somebody will pick up the idea, but you have yet to see a return on your investment. Mom said the next time she throws any money your way will be when you overdose on “all that grass you smoke” and she’s forced to pay for a funeral. You tried to tell her that a person can’t actually overdose on marijuana, but she simply won’t have it.

With all of your borrowing options exhausted, and a bad experience the last time you tried to sell yourself on Craig’s List, there’s only one real option left to get the money in time. You guessed it: bet on this weekend’s UFC 107 card.

Here are the betting lines for the three main bouts on the card, courtesy of

BJ Penn -300 vs. Diego Sanchez +220

Kenny Florian -210 vs. Clay Guida +165

Frank Mir -210 vs. Cheick Kongo +165

Half-assed analysis after the jump.

Penn vs. Sanchez

Sanchez might have cardio for days, but BJ has showed up in great shape in his past few fights. Plus, for Sanchez’s hypothetical cardio advantage to even matter, he’ll have to drag Penn into the later rounds, which is unlikely. Sanchez absolutely does not want to stay standing against the Hawaiian, as his best chance for victory will be to apply some of his trademark ground-and-pound. But with Penn’s top-notch takedown defense, Sanchez is going to have a helluva time even getting this one to the ground. Even if he does, he’ll have to deal with Penn’s insane jiu-jitsu game.

The fight essentially boils down to this: Penn has the advantage in essentially all aspects of the fight game, which means he has more tools to win. Even at -300, Penn is a good bet here as it’s very unlikely that Sanchez walks out with the lightweight title.

Florian vs. Guida

I like Guida here, which makes him a good bet considering he’s the underdog. Florian is technically a better fighter, with a much more polished stand-up game and a solid arsenal of submissions. But Guida is the better wrestler, and is almost impossible to put away. He also has the type of unorthodox striking that allows him to land punches on better kickboxers than himself.

Way I see it, Florian will have to finish Guida to win this one, and “The Carpenter” has shown that that is nearly impossible to do. Just ask the man challenging for the title in this show’s main event.

Kongo vs. Mir

Mir will submit Kongo. Period. This one is practically guaranteed money.