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Who’s picking who

Today’s the day and of course you’re burning up inside to know who everyone else is picking for the Randy Couture vs Brock Lesnar fight. A lot of bloggers seem to be hedging their bets and choosing Brock Lesnar since on paper he’s the logical choice. Sherdog’s got a big collection of picks from fighters, and the tally comes out 26-10 for Randy with 10 undecided.

I’ve come to the conclusion that BloodyElbow’s Michael Rome and I share the same brain. The fact that Rome is in law school and I am on welfare just goes to show you how many smarts I’m wasting. Rome is constantly voicing the same ideas and thoughts that I do, albeit with slightly more eloquence than me. What can I say, I love being a little potty-mouthed bitch.

Anyways, rather than write out my own thoughts on why Randy Couture is gonna beat Brock Lesnar, I figured I’d continue my lazy ways and just crib Rome’s explanation. It’s pretty much perfect in every way:

There are so many key factors in this fight that it’s impossible to address them all in one post, but I believe the deciding factor in this fight will be instincts.   A great comparison is to look at how both followed up their knockdowns of Tim Sylvia and Heath Herring.   Randy looked shocked at first, but immediately rushed in, landed several lefts, and took the back to try to get a choke.   Brock Lesnar followed with…I don’t know, a quarterback sack type maneuver.   He ended up against the cage holding Herring in a headlock while he looked to his corner for advice and then figured out what to do.

The problem for Lesnar is his instincts aren’t there.   If Randy ends up on top in half guard, Lesnar is not going to be able to take 15 seconds, remember what to do in this situation, and then do it.   He’ll have to be ready to defend immediately, or he’ll get pounded.   I have no doubt Randy can recover and survive a bad shot, but for Brock, as soon as something goes wrong, I think it’s over for him.

Brock Lesnar has proven that he barely knows what he’s doing in the cage when he’s winning. Randy Couture is gonna put him on the wrong end of adversity and you’re gonna see Brock crack like a bitch under the pressure.

(picture from Tracy’s awesome CombatLifestyle gallery of the UFC 91 weigh-ins)